For some time, the Democrats have been saying that Florida and Texas will become “Blue” states.
A younger and more urban population tends to be more diverse economically and culturally than their suburban and rural counterparts are. California is the biggest contributor to the recent increase in the population of Texas. The transplants have been going to the urban areas of Dallas, Houston, San Antonio but especially Austin.
Texas is an open primary state and does not require a voter to declare for a party. There are 2 million more voters in Texas than there were just 4 years ago. Presumably since they are flocking to urban areas, they should be more Democrat than Republican.
There are 14,250,000 registered voters in Florida. 5,150,000 are Republicans and 4,250,000 are Democrats with 3,900,000 showing no party affiliation with the rest belonging to minor parties. As a closed primary state, only those registered with a party can vote in the primary unless there is no other candidate running from the other party or as an independent in the general election. However, that also may lead to more voters registering with the dominant party in their county to be able to vote in closed primary elections.
Those who have contributed to Florida’s population gains have migrated to the suburbs and small cities of the Sunshine State. They tend to be older and more conservative than what many believed that the population increase outcome would be. Cities such as Fort Lauderdale, which are Democratic hubs, have not seen the same influx of new residents as places such as the Villages which skews Republican.
The demographics of the Hispanic population in Florida and Texas are also different. Mexicans, the majority Hispanic group in Texas, have usually voted for Democrats. In Florida, there is much more diversity of the Spanish speaking population with the Cubans and Venezuelans flocking to the Republican party. That was because of Democrats being portrayed as Socialists and Communists. With more than one in four Florida Hispanics being Cuban-Americans, that is a rich source of votes for Republicans.
In the not-too-distant future, Texas may be an interestingly purple place. Because of gerrymandering, the Republican legislature will continue to be overwhelmingly Republican for the 2020s. However, other local offices and maybe some statewide races could be much more in contention because of these new residents.
In Florida, the Republican legislature gerrymandered the districts for the same results as Texas. However, because of the demographic differences between the two states, Red will continue to be the predominant Florida color. Once Florida becomes a more urban and younger state, it will become more purple.
Until then, Democrats should not waste much time with statewide races in Florida. I would suggest to Democrats in every state that they build up their local organizations. They need to stress the grass roots and to win local offices. They need to capture more statehouses and governor’s offices to be a viable party. Get out of the Northeast and West Coast and get back to the heartland. Otherwise, Democrats will continue to be a regional party.
