I have just finished browsing the All Aboard Florida impact study. Rich Campbell of the Stuart News is correct that the study was bought and paid for by the All Aboard folks therefore how impartial are the results? The Feds allowing FECI to pay for a report and providing the consultant the “facts” to convince our government to give the company our tax money to prove its plan is feasible is worthy of a Koestler or Kafka novel.
The report highlighted the myriad ways that already exist to go from Miami to Orlando. There is Amtrak and busses and planes and, of course, cars. If you believe the purveyors of this new train fantasy, their train will be the optimal way to go between those two points. Maybe it is true, but is it worth spending tax payer dollars to find out?
The U.S. is not Europe or Asia where high speed train travel is a viable alternative. Since the AAF fare rates are not published, we have no way to judge whether it makes sense to take their train or just drive. Before moving to Stuart, I lived in Connecticut and had the option of taking the train or driving when I went into Manhattan. During the day, there was a train every half hour to and from Grand Central Station, and it took just about an hour. After rush hour the train ran every hour.
Most times, whether for business or pleasure, I would drive. Several factors went into my decision. If I was going to Manhattan, the train was quite convenient if my plans kept me in the vicinity of Grand Central Station. If I would have to take a subway or a bus or a taxi to reach my ultimate destination from Grand Central and then do the same to return to catch the train home, I would drive. What AAF never mentions is that going from Miami Station to Orlando Station in three hours does not take into account where you actually begin your journey and where the journey actually ends. A trip seldom ends at a railroad station.
If you have to drive to the station and pay to park and then when you reach the other station either rent a car or take a taxi or get on another train, where is the savings in time? Ultimately, that is why train travel in the U.S. is a non- starter. We are not a station to station nation. Stations are only one part of the travel equation.
If you look at what the existing Amtrak and inter-city busses charge, no family will pay about $100 per person to reach Disney. All they need to do is pile into the car and go from home to the theme park without any intermediate steps and it will cost less. That leaves the business traveler as AAF’s target audience. Even if you captured every business person in both directions and all other busses and Amtrak service were eliminated and those business travelers would pay what you charged, could AAF still be profitable? I doubt it. The advances in technology have made business travel a shrinking market not a growing one. As a business person, the last thing I want to do is sit on a train for three hours in each direction (not counting getting to and from the stations) unless I absolutely had to make the journey.
If all of AAF’s dreams come to pass, will it be successful? Past history regarding schemes like this would say no. The free market has rejected train travel except in large commuting metropolitan areas (where it is heavily subsidized) for the past seventy years. Let the market decide whether All Aboard Florida is viable but the market should do so without the aid of taxpayer dollars.